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Plug-in hybrid cars release almost five times greater global warming pollution than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Gap In Official and Real-World Emissions

Statistics shows that PHEVs emit only 19% less CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel cars, based on research conducted by a advocacy group. This differs sharply with lab tests, which assumed a three-quarters reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of 800,000 vehicles sold in Europe from 2021 and 2023. The team found that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while lab-reported emissions are falling,” stated a lead analyst participating in the report. “That gap is growing and creates a serious issue. Consequently, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Key Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers travelled in electric mode relative to overall mileage. The team determined that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, whereas official estimates suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in electric mode, emission levels were well above official projections. This occurred because EV motors were not strong sufficient to operate independently, resulting to combustion motors burning fossil fuels for almost a third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions enabled four large automaker companies to escape more than €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would spend approximately €500 extra annually in running costs than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are clearly way off the mark,” stated a transport expert. “Consumers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving costs. Actually, PHEVs are little better than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Policy Debate and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been brought back into political debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive sector and opposition from EU countries with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” option to include in the regulation.

An external energy policy expert, who was not involved with the research, called the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after years in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient data to accurately assess actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap in official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is significantly greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert said. “Any regulatory changes concerning PHEVs should be implemented with extreme care and considering that evidence.”